7 of probably the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three main products. We had been launched to the Cybercab, Tesla’s totally self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk additionally unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, solely greater and weirder-looking. And Elon completed the present by bringing in a military of horrifying Optimus robots that may at some point play board video games along with your children and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a person with rather a lot to say, Elon’s supply was low vitality, however regardless of the muted presentation, there have been some absolute gems to be discovered. That is as a result of Elon managed to throw in some actually outrageous claims all through the presentation that lasted beneath an hour. Listed below are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims throughout the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robotic would be the greatest product ever of any sort

I feel the wheel might need one thing to say about that

Tesla

Let’s begin with probably the most ludicrous claims of all. This one is so massive that it must be quoted precisely. Elon Musk, with a straight face, said the next about his Optimus robotic:

“I feel this would be the greatest product ever, of any sort.”

Let’s simply put that into context. There are some critical contenders already for probably the most vital product ever of any sort. Two of the three merchandise showcased on the We, Robotic occasion used wheels, and the wheel absolutely needs to be in with a shout, proper? In accordance with Elon, his robotic that may barely stroll with out trying prefer it’s about to fall over, shall be greater than the wheel, a product that has been used for 1000’s of years. Positive it’s going to, Elon.

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2 Each one of many eight billion folks of Earth will need an Optimus buddy

Do we actually need a robotic military of billions?

Tesla

Elon additionally claims that “each one of many eight billion folks of Earth will need an Optimus buddy.” In reality, some might even need two. That is despite the fact that the Optimus robotic is prone to value $30,000 when constructed at scale. I am positive for those who requested somebody at present dwelling in a struggle zone or affected by famine what they’d most prefer to spend $30,000 on, the reply would positively be a daunting humanoid robotic.

There is a quite simple method to show that Elon’s assertion is not true. I can inform you proper now I do not need one. There is not any means that I need to personal a humanoid robotic constructed by an organization that may’t even make a workable truck. Having loved the numerous hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there is no means that at the least certainly one of these Optimus robots is not going to blow up, catch hearth, or begin telling you to place down your weapons and that you’ve 20 seconds to conform, just like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I do not need an Optimus buddy, which I do not, then that declare that eight billion folks will need one cannot be true; it is going to be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% chance that digital tremendous intelligence will not be dangerous

60% of the time, it really works each time

Terminator

This was a throwaway remark, however it’s one which Elon has made earlier than. In accordance with him, there’s an 80% likelihood digital tremendous intelligence shall be a drive for good. Sadly, the flip aspect of because of this there is a one in 5 likelihood that AI will grow to be self-aware and launch nukes in opposition to us.

It is unclear the place Elon has pulled these figures from. He might have requested Grok AI to determine it out, so it is nearly actually extremely correct. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all of the AI chatbots proper now as a result of a one-in-five likelihood of AI destroying us all appears worryingly excessive. By no means inform me the chances.

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4 Anybody will be capable of have any services they need

Who’s paying for the ability, Elon?

Tesla

There appears to be lots of people in the meanwhile saying that know-how will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Solely not too long ago, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the person behind ChatGPT, claimed in a weblog publish that “sooner or later, everybody’s lives will be higher than anybody’s life is now.” Elon is providing the same view of the long run; with Optimus robots doing all the roles for us, it’s going to usher in a brand new daybreak the place “anybody will be capable of have any services they need; it is going to be an age of abundance.”

The flaw on this plan is that even with robots doing all of the work at no cost, services nonetheless require uncooked supplies and vitality, each of which value cash. It is unlikely that robots changing people getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a manufacturing unit in China will imply you can purchase the iPhone 19 for $10. It is attention-grabbing that each one the those that appear to be saying that tech will convey a brand new daybreak of prosperity are additionally those promoting that tech. Possibly it’s going to develop into true — for them, at the least.

5 Your autonomous automobile shall be used ten instances extra usually than your present automobile

The concept is sweet, however the figures do not add up

Tesla

This one is just a little contentious as a result of, to some extent, the declare has the potential to be true. Nevertheless, the numbers simply do not appear so as to add up. Elon factors out that the common individual makes use of their automobile for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in every week. If a automobile can drive itself, then it might be used as a lot as ten instances greater than vehicles are at present, making your automobile ten instances extra priceless.

At first look, this appears so as to add up. In case your automobile can drive itself, then if you’re not utilizing it, you might put it to work as a taxi, driving round and taking folks the place they should go, and incomes you some cash whilst you sleep or work. It does not appear unreasonable that your automobile might be used for 100 hours within the week on this means.

There are a couple of points right here, nevertheless. Firstly, for those who’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving automobile, would you like whole strangers driving round in it for 90 hours every week? Even for those who do, there’s an issue with demand. You let folks use your automobile as a taxi for 90 hours every week, no downside. Your neighbor does the identical. So does the neighbor on the opposite aspect. Three homes alone can provide almost 300 hours of rides every week. It does not take lengthy earlier than the out there hours from all of those autonomous vehicles vastly outstrip the demand, that means that your automobile will find yourself sitting idle in your storage in any case.

If one way or the other demand matches provide, the issues are even worse. If each automobile is used for ten instances as a lot as it’s at present, then the roads may have ten instances the quantity of visitors — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will grow to be automobile shepherds with flocks of vehicles

If one Uber driver has 20 vehicles, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

In the event you’re an Uber driver frightened about shedding your supply of revenue, don’t be concerned, Elon has you lined. He envisions that in the present day’s Uber drivers will grow to be tomorrow’s automobile shepherds. That is proper, Uber drivers sooner or later may have fleets of 10-20 vehicles that they are going to take care of like a shepherd tends to his flock.

By no means thoughts {that a} fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you again round $600,000, cash that the common Uber driver is unlikely to have mendacity round. As soon as once more, it is a problem of demand. If an Uber driver in the present day goes from one automobile to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 different Uber drivers, that means the opposite 19 are successfully put out of enterprise. It is not doable for each driver in the present day to run a fleet of 20 vehicles and nonetheless have sufficient demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab shall be prepared earlier than 2027

Tesla’s monitor document says in any other case

Tesla

I did not assume any declare might be extra unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the most important product ever, however he managed to prime it with an much more unlikely declare. That is proper, Elon stated that the Cybercab shall be prepared “earlier than 2027.” Let’s check out current historical past. In 2014, Elon stated that the Cybertruck can be prepared in 4-5 years. 2018 got here and went, however no Cybertruck. 2019, after we ought to have been in a position to begin shopping for them, was when the primary idea Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t till the very finish of 2023 that the primary Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is principally only a massive automobile with a hideous-looking physique, hardly an enormous technological leap. The Cybercab goals to be a state-of-the-art, totally self-driving autonomous car that should bear rigorous security testing earlier than folks go wherever close to one. The possibilities of that taking place earlier than 2027 are slim to none.